How might the airline industry look in 12 months’ time?

In this IIL aviation webinar, Chris Tarry provided his perspectives on how he believes that the airline industry will recover from Covid-19 (and where and why) and the associated consequences, implications, and opportunities.

The effective hibernation of large parts of the airline industry has highlighted its pivotal role in the well-being of the complete aviation system as, simply put, if airlines cannot make money then nobody else across the wider sector is able to do so too.

Numerous analysts and other observers have suggested that the airline industry, and by implication the support and supply industries, together face an existential threat. The more accurate assessment is that although this may well be the case for a number of individual companies currently operating in the industry, it is not a threat for the industry itself as demand will in the first instance recover, albeit at different rates, and then grow beyond that; Chris will show what CTAIRA expects the shape of the recovery to be and with what consequences.

Even in more benign operating environments there were, in reality, few airlines that either generated adequate financial returns or were indeed financially sustainable furthermore the capital needed to “restore “the industry to pre-Covid levels of activity is beyond the capacity of the private sector and where it is important to consider the wider consequences.

At least over the medium-term change in the shape size and structure of the supply side is inevitable and where the associated ‘shake out’ has yet to run its course. Every external event since 2001 has resulted in a material change in the structure of the industry with opportunities for new entrants, as well as for the more efficient airlines, to take more profitable share. It will be no different this time and we will also see new entrants with ‘blank sheet of paper’ models addressing opportunities that are already evident in dislocated markets and where the inevitable focus of the incumbent managements will be inwards.

Whilst there are many challenges still ahead it is important to be clear that there are also opportunities as the industry recovers and then grows again.

By the end of this webinar members would have gained an insight into:

• The shape and speed of the recovery by major region
• The issues facing managements across the sector but particularly airlines, airports, and suppliers
• Where the challenges and opportunities appear to lie

You will be sent a confirmation email shortly after booking. If you have not received this within one hour, please contact Patricia Pedraza (020 7397 3911).

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