Developing scenarios to understand risk

In this IIL reinsurance lecture Professor Danny Ralph and Oliver Carpenter talked about risk within a different range of possible future scenarios and a tool to cope with uncertainty, especially when risks are not well understood, or cannot be quantified or identified.

In their lecture, Professor Ralph and Oliver aimed to cover understanding the broad applications of scenarios to explore risk, to explore common characteristics and differences in scenario typologies and how to apply common frameworks to develop relevant and effective scenarios.

The aim was to provide a systematic method for thinking creatively about a variety of possible futures, rather than attempting to accurately predict individual outcomes. Scenarios are increasingly used by practitioners, decision makers, and other stakeholders in insurance to better understand the characteristics and consequences of unknown, uncertain, or unexpected future events, and support planning and decision-making strategies to address them. This session marked the launch of two scenario best practice guides - for the insurance industry and the disaster risk reduction community - exploring development frameworks and key considerations.

By the end of this lecture members would have gained an insight into:

• The definition and types of scenarios
• How can they be used to aid strategy and decision making
• Where to find supportive information to help a practitioner develop scenarios

Chair:
Andrew Carrier, Everest Re.

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